JSE Market Wrap: Netcare Leads Gains as Investec Completes R2.5bn Buyback

The JSE All Share retreated 0.51% on Thursday, dragged lower by a 1.28% decline in Resources and a 0.83% drop in Industrials, though Financials eked out a modest 0.48% gain. Netcare Limited led the day's movers with a 5.3% rally after projecting double-digit earnings growth, while Investec plc and Investec Ltd surged 5.69% and 4.31% respectively following the completion of a R2.5 billion share repurchase. At the other end, Northam Platinum Holdings shed 3.91% and Naspers fell 2.99%, reflecting sustained pressure across platinum group metals and the technology counterweight discount.

NTC Netcare targets 18-23% earnings surge in H1 2026

Netcare Limited issued a trading statement on Thursday projecting EPS and HEPS to grow between 18% and 23% for the first half of 2026, a double-digit earnings upgrade that confirmed the operational recovery at South Africa's second-largest private hospital operator remains firmly on track. Management attributed the expected uplift to higher hospital activity levels and the ongoing benefits of its operational digitisation programme, while an accretive share buyback was cited as a further tailwind to per-share metrics. The figures remain unaudited until the formal interim results are released, introducing a degree of variance risk, though the magnitude of the projected growth is material enough to represent a meaningful reassessment of the fundamental outlook. Netcare rallied 5.3% on the day to close at R16.89, making it one of the strongest performers on the local market and reversing some of the recent technical weakness that had kept the stock below its 50-day moving average.

INL Investec delivers 4.8% EPS growth and completes R2.5bn buyback

Investec Group reported adjusted EPS of 82.9 pence for the full year ended March 2026, representing a 4.8% increase that was accompanied by the completion of the Investec annual results and R2.5bn buyback. The buyback signals management confidence in the intrinsic value of the franchise, and the Southern African wealth funds under management grew a healthy 15.4%, providing a solid foundation for recurring fee income. However, the group pushed the timeline for a meaningful inflection in broader shareholder returns out to FY2028, citing heavy near-term investment needs that will maintain elevated cost spending. Return on equity contracted modestly year-on-year to 13.6%, while absolute expected credit loss charges rose to £124.2 million, though the credit loss ratio remained within the target range. Separately, the group announced an orderly board succession plan, with Henrietta Baldock appointed as incoming Group Chair effective August 2026 and Nkululeko Sowazi joining as an independent non-executive director. Investec Ltd closed 4.31% higher at R139.50 and Investec plc surged 5.69% to R143.44.

PIK Pick n Pay upgrades full-year earnings guidance as Boxer delivers

Pick n Pay trading statement reversed its earlier forecast of a widened full-year headline loss, upgrading its outlook to expect EPS and HEPS to improve by between 10% and 20% for the 52 weeks ended March 2026. The upgrade was driven by stronger-than-anticipated performance at its Boxer discount format, which continued to gain market share and operating momentum, as well as late-cycle margin gains at the core Pick n Pay brand in the final month of the financial year. This positive revision removes the worst-case scenario for investors who had been pricing in a deeper loss, providing a degree of relief after a prolonged operational restructuring. Nevertheless, the core Pick n Pay segment still carries estimated trading losses of R2.0-2.1 billion, meaning the durability of the turnaround at the main brand remains unproven against the current valuation backdrop. The figures are unaudited and will be fully tested when the formal results are published.

THA Tharisa posts 472% HEPS surge in interim results

Tharisa interim results reported exceptional first-half results for the six months ended March 2026, with EBITDA surging 138.1% and headline earnings per share soaring 472.4% year-on-year, driven by strong operational leverage across its integrated chrome and platinum strategy. Operating cash flow expanded by 167.8%, adequately funding the group's elevated capital expenditure programme of US$103.5 million, which is heavily weighted towards the Karo Platinum project. The board declared an increased interim dividend of US 2.5 cents per share, representing a 66% uplift that rewards shareholders directly and signals management's confidence in the sustainability of the current earnings trajectory. Underground development at the mine is progressing with a focus on maximising long-term resource longevity, supporting the integrated chrome-PGM operating model that underpins the investment case. The shares rose 2.42% on the day to close at R136.

4SI 4Sight projects 40-52% headline earnings jump for FY26

4Sight Holdings Limited issued a trading statement expecting HEPS to grow between 40.3% and 52.0% for the year ended February 2026, reaching 10.303 to 11.161 cents per share on the back of strong underlying operational performance across its diversified technology portfolio. EPS is projected to rise by 29.3% to 40.1%, reaching 9.495 to 10.286 cents, confirming the breadth of the earnings uplift across all headline per-share metrics. The substantial uplift in core profitability validates the growth thesis that has been building at this mid-cap technology group and provides a concrete fundamental basis for the equity's valuation heading into the final reviewed results. As with all trading statement figures, these are unaudited estimates and do not yet include full balance sheet, cash flow, or segmental detail that will be provided in the formal results release.

EEL Efora Energy moves to provisional liquidation after funding talks fail

Efora Energy Limited's board formally resolved to apply for provisional liquidation on Thursday following the collapse of critical funding negotiations, effectively ending the company's status as a going concern with no viable path to value recovery for common shareholders. Management had pursued an active funding solution that was expected to adequately support ongoing operations, but those negotiations ultimately failed, leading to the formal insolvency application. The equity now faces a terminal outcome, with any proceeds ranking behind secured and unsecured creditors in the liquidation waterfall, leaving little to no recovery expected for ordinary shareholders. This represents the formal breaking of the investment thesis and closes a chapter for a company that had been attempting a restructuring since its earlier cautionary announcements.

SLM Sanlam posts 29% new business volume growth but VNB falls 22%

Sanlam Limited reported strong first-quarter new business volume growth of 29% and net client cash flows of R38.6 billion in its operational update for the three months ended March 2026, reflecting a healthy intake of client mandates across its wealth and insurance franchises. However, the value of new covered business dropped 22% as the product mix shifted toward capital-light savings products, compressing the VNB margin to 1.5% and placing near-term profitability under pressure despite the robust top-line flows. Available discretionary capital was reduced from R8.1 billion to R3.2 billion over the quarter following R4.8 billion in acquisition spending, including the successful completion of the Shriram strategic acquisition in India. Full-year earnings and dividend guidance has been maintained by management, providing a floor for investor expectations, though the contraction in new business margins warrants close monitoring as the year progresses.

NPK Nampak guides steep statutory earnings decline on base effects

Nampak Limited expects Total Operations HEPS to fall between 45% and 52% and Total Operations EPS to plummet between 84% and 86% for the period ended March 2026, headline figures that may alarm investors scanning the percentage declines. However, these severe drops are largely driven by the non-recurrence of a R2.5 billion profit on business disposals recorded in the prior year, a distorting base effect that overstates any deterioration in the core packaging operations. On a normalised basis, Continuing Operations HEPS is expected to grow between 2% and 13%, with finance costs reduced by R92 million post-tax, indicating that underlying operations are stabilising. An impairment loss reversal of R239 million (post-tax) reflects improved performance in the Beverage Angola division, while the group recorded a R70 million impairment at Nampak Zimbabwe and R68 million in Angola relocation costs that cloud the underlying picture. The statutory figures remain unaudited and will be clarified in full when the formal results are published.

What we are watching

Investors should watch for Netcare's formal H1 2026 interim results and Sanlam's continued quarterly operational disclosures, while Quilter is expected to publish its director dealing and beneficial interest disclosures on a rolling basis.