JSE Tuesday: Resources Lead as Industrials Stumble; Kumba Warns, Copper 360 Rises

Introduction

Tuesday's session split the JSE down the middle: Resource 20 surged 2.41% on the back of a firmer platinum group metals complex, pushing the FTSE/JSE Precious Metals & Mining index up 2.59%, while Industrial 25 slumped 1.71% and Technology fell 3.72%. The divergence left the All Share index barely changed at +0.04%, with Kumba Iron Ore trading statement H1 2026 sliding on a profit warning and Copper 360 Rietberg development halfway mark advancing on a mining milestone. Among notable moves, SOH shed 30% on thin trade and OAO climbed 16%, also thinly traded.

KIO Kumba profit warning: rand strength and softer iron ore bite

Kumba Iron Ore issued a trading statement on Tuesday guiding H1 2026 headline earnings per share down 39%–43% to R12.68–R13.61, with EBITDA expected to fall 30%–35% to between R10.4 billion and R11.2 billion. Management attributed roughly 96% of the EBITDA decline to three identifiable factors: an 11% strengthening of the rand against the US dollar, a softer global iron ore price in US dollar terms, and a prior-year Transnet logistics payment that inflated the comparator base. The fact that 96% of the decline is explained by named factors limits the scope for further negative surprises once the full audited results are released on 28 July, though it does not reverse the direction of the miss. The share had already drifted lower into the announcement, consistent with a market that had been working through the same macro headwinds. Roughly 4% of the EBITDA movement remains unattributed, leaving a thin margin of uncertainty around the operational picture beneath the headline.

CPR Copper 360's Rietberg development passes halfway mark

Copper 360's flagship Rietberg Mine passed the halfway mark on its 544-metre underground drive to the 300 Level orebody on Tuesday, with ore intersection targeted within 90 days. The milestone lands on a share that has traded near the bottom of its 52-week range and is down roughly 50% over the past 90 days, making this a concrete near-term de-risking event for investors who have held through the decline. Once on ore, run-of-mine production of roughly 700 tonnes per day is expected to fully utilise the MFP2 processing plant for the first time, aligning mining and processing capacity for the first time in the asset's development arc. The 300 Level ore block is expected to supply mill feed for approximately three years, extending the production runway and providing the market with a clearer view of the cash-generation timeline. The 90-day ore intersection is the pivotal near-term test; any slippage would push back plant feed and the start of meaningful revenues.

DLT Delta sells Hatfield Forum East at a 24% discount to valuation

Delta Property Fund Hatfield Forum East disposal announced the sale of Hatfield Forum East to NXTGEN Student Housing for R35 million — a 23.7% discount to the independent Knight Frank valuation of R45.9 million as at 28 February 2026. The property carries a 39% vacancy rate, which explains the steep discount and signals that the bid market for non-core office assets is thin. Proceeds are earmarked for debt reduction, consistent with the pattern established by two prior concluded disposals — In2Fruit and 88 Field Street — where proceeds were also applied to settle property-level debt. The transaction is classified as Category 2 under JSE Listings Requirements and needs no shareholder vote, with a R1 million non-refundable deposit already paid and the balance payable on transfer targeted for January 2027. The deal raises questions about the bid depth for the remaining portfolio and whether Delta can deleverage fast enough to stabilise its balance sheet, given that three consecutive disposals have all been struck at below-valuation prices.

SOL Sasol posts operational beats ahead of audited FY26 results

Sasol released business performance metrics for the year ended 30 June 2026 showing Secunda Operations produced its highest annual output in five years, beating market guidance on destoning gains and improved gas availability. Integrated Chemicals Adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed the US$375–US$450 million guidance range, driven by stronger US pricing and resilient Eurasia cost pass-through — a genuine beat rather than a line-item confirmation. Operational renewable energy capacity surpassed 500 megawatts after a 330-megawatt quarterly addition, advancing the energy transition and supporting Sasol's competitive positioning on energy costs. However, ORYX GTL remains offline with restart contingent on Middle East conditions, and the FY27 ZAR/USD hedging programme is still incomplete, leaving a portion of earnings exposed to further rand appreciation. Net working capital exceeded guidance on Middle East-related fuels inventory build, a cash absorption headwind into the new financial year that will be clarified when full audited results are published on 1 September.

NED Nedbank receives 79.90% NCBA acceptance, above 66% target

Nedbank NCBA offer results confirmed on Tuesday that acceptances covering 79.90% of NCBA Group Plc shares in issue had been received — well above the 66% minimum acceptance threshold — effectively closing the offer to NCBA shareholders. The strong uptake triggered scaling mechanics in the allocation process, with the deal now proceeding to settlement subject to fulfilment or waiver of outstanding conditions. The transaction had been flagged to the market since May, so the certainty of execution is a confirmation rather than a new development. Importantly, the filing does not disclose the pro forma CET1 ratio impact, goodwill generated, or EPS dilution from the acquisition — the capital-quality metrics that matter for Nedbank's existing shareholders assessing whether the purchase price is justified. Nedbank referenced two completed property transfers (In2Fruit and 88 Field Street) under a separate Delta Property Fund disposal programme, consistent with the Delta announcements published earlier on Tuesday.

What we are watching

Kumba Iron Ore's full H1 results are scheduled for release on 28 July 2026, where the market will see whether the production resilience — only 3% lower despite the heaviest rainfall in decades — translated into better-than-guided EBITDA at the revenue line. Sasol's audited FY26 financial results are due on 1 September 2026 and will be the test of whether the operational beats — Secunda's five-year production high and IC EBITDA above guidance — flow through to the bottom line and whether the balance sheet held despite the working capital build. Omnia's 59th annual general meeting is set for 11 September 2026.