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BTI Operational Update Neutral

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - BAT to Present at CAGNY; Reaffirming FY26 Guidance

British American Tobacco p.l.c.
Full analysis

What this filing means

British American Tobacco reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance at the lower end of expected ranges during a routine investor conference presentation.

British American Tobacco told investors they are sticking to their financial goals for 2026, though they expect to hit the lower part of their targets. They are continuing to move away from traditional cigarettes toward smokeless products like Vuse and Velo, which now make up nearly 20% of their sales.

Bull case

  • Reaffirmation of FY26 guidance provides financial stability and predictability for the defensive stock.
  • Significant progress in smokeless products with 31 million adult users and 18.2% of Group revenue as of Dec 2025.
  • Strategic target to achieve 50% of Group revenue from smokeless products by 2035 remains on track.
  • Active investor engagement through presentation at the CAGNY Conference by top executives.

Bear case

  • Guidance is explicitly pegged at the 'lower end' of constant-currency ranges, signaling limited growth momentum.
  • Performance metrics are heavily adjusted for Canada and rely on H2-weighting, introducing timing and transparency risks.
  • The company maintains no obligation to update forward-looking statements, which may obscure deteriorating conditions.
View original SENS announcement

AI-generated summary by SENS-AI, based on the original JSE SENS filing.

SENS-AI conclusion

British American Tobacco has reaffirmed its FY26 guidance during a presentation at the CAGNY Conference, sticking to the targets first shared in February 2026. While the commitment to growth in smokeless products is positive, the admission that performance will likely hit the 'lower end' of ranges suggests a cautious outlook with limited near-term catalysts. Because this is a routine continuation of previously disclosed information, the market impact is expected to be minimal. Investor Takeaway: This is a steady-as-she-goes update for a defensive play, confirming a safe but unexciting 5.6% dividend yield while the business slowly pivots away from combustibles.

Evidence from the filing

  • BAT has reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for revenue growth (3-5%), adjusted profit from operations growth (4-6%), and adjusted diluted EPS growth (5-8%).

    “BAT reaffirms FY26 guidance, first announced on 12 February 2026, indicating performance at the lower end of the following constant-currency ranges: 3-5% revenue growth; 4-6% adjusted profit from operations growth (adj. for Canada and H2 weighted); and 5-8% adjusted diluted EPS growth (adj. for Canada).”

  • The announcement highlights that BAT's smokeless brands were used by over 31 million adult consumers worldwide as of 31 December 2025.

    “As of 31 December 2025, BAT's smokeless brands – Vuse, glo and Velo – were used by over 31 million adult consumers worldwide, many of whom have completely switched from – or have reduced their consumption of – cigarettes. Smokeless Products accounted for 18.2% of Group revenue. The company aims to reach 50 million adult consumers with its Smokeless Products by 2030 and for these products to deliver 50% of Group revenue by 2035.”

  • The presentation by BAT's Chief Executive and Reynolds American President provides a platform for continued investor engagement.

    “BAT's Chief Executive, Tadeu Marroco, and Reynolds American President, David Waterfield, will present to investors today at the 2026 Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference.”

  • BAT's reaffirmation of FY26 guidance specifically at the lower end of its constant-currency ranges indicates a lack of positive momentum.

    “BAT reaffirms FY26 guidance, first announced on 12 February 2026, indicating performance at the lower end of the following constant-currency ranges: 3-5% revenue growth; 4-6% adjusted profit from operations growth (adj. for Canada and H2 weighted); and 5-8% adjusted diluted EPS growth (adj. for Canada).”

  • The adjusted profit from operations and diluted EPS growth metrics are heavily dependent on H2 weighted performance and adj. for Canada.

    “4-6% adjusted profit from operations growth (adj. for Canada and H2 weighted); and 5-8% adjusted diluted EPS growth (adj. for Canada).”

  • The company explicitly states it undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements.

    “BAT undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.”
Category
Operational Update
Published
Feb 18, 2026

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