EXX Pre Close Message Neutral
EXXARO RESOURCES LIMITED - Finance Directors Pre-Close Message
Exxaro Resources Limited
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What this filing means
The update is broadly constructive but tracks the line the market largely already had. Exxaro's pre-close for 1H26 confirms coal production is on track to grow 10% and sales 6%, with API4 coal averaging US$105/t (up from US$92/t) and iron ore and manganese also firmer year-on-year. Full-year production and capex guidance is unchanged from 11 March, the share sits near 52-week highs, and no HEPS or segment EBITDA is disclosed, so the read is confirmation of an improving setup rather than a fresh…
Bull case
- Coal production and sales volumes in 1H26 are projected to grow 10% and 6% respectively versus 1H25, driven by Grootegeluk and Matla ramp-up.
- API4 RBCT coal export price is averaging US$105/t in 1H26, up from US$92/t in 1H25, with spot reaching ~US$124/t amid Middle East tensions.
Bear case
- Grootegeluk direct rail flow of 3-4 trains/week versus 11 contracted caps export ramp despite guided 15% export sales uplift.
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