MONDI PLC - Q3 2026 Trading Update
What this filing means
Mondi's Q3 2026 trading update shows underlying EBITDA of €196 million, up sequentially from €167 million in Q2, but the improvement is flattered by a swing in forestry fair value from a €43 million loss to nil. Excluding that item, underlying EBITDA was lower sequentially, primarily on planned maintenance shuts. The quarter was a genuine two-speed story: good order books and higher selling prices offset rising energy and wood costs in most divisions, while Corrugated Solutions margins stayed under competitive pressure and Uncoated Fine Paper saw seasonally weaker demand. The company announced further paper price increases, with benefits expected from late 2026 into 2027.
Mondi made more money this quarter than last, but the headline improvement is partly an accounting swing — last quarter included a €43 million forestry write-down, this quarter had none. Strip that out and the underlying business actually earned slightly less, mainly because of planned factory maintenance. The encouraging part is that order books are healthy and the company is pushing through price increases to cover rising energy and wood costs, with more price rises already announced for later this year and into 2027.
Bull case
- Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA improved sequentially to €196 million from €167 million in Q2, although the comparison includes a nil fair value gain versus a €43 million fair value loss.
- Further paper-grade price increases were announced, with benefits expected towards the end of 2026 and into 2027.
- Good order books supported positive price momentum, with higher average selling prices offsetting input-cost inflation during Q3 2026.
- Higher packaging-paper prices are expected to support Q4 2026 performance despite ongoing input-cost pressures.
- Kraft Paper and Paper Bags delivered positive pricing momentum that offset higher input costs in Q3 2026.
Bear case
- Input costs were higher than expected as energy costs increased through the quarter and wood costs rose in Central and Eastern Europe.
- Competitive pressure and lags in passing on paper price increases continued to pressure Corrugated Solutions margins.
- Uncoated Fine Paper experienced seasonally weaker demand alongside higher input costs.
- Underlying EBITDA excluding forestry fair value was lower sequentially, primarily reflecting planned maintenance shuts.
- Mondi expects another nil forestry fair value gain in Q4 if current prices, particularly South African diesel prices, prevail.
AI-generated summary by SENS-AI, based on the original JSE SENS filing.
SENS-AI conclusion
A mixed quarter that reads as confirmation of a known trajectory rather than a fresh signal. The sequential EBITDA improvement is real but partly mechanical — the nil forestry fair value gain versus a €43 million loss last quarter flatters the comparison, and excluding that item the underlying business was lower on planned maintenance shuts. The operating story is constructive: pricing momentum is offsetting input-cost inflation in most divisions, and further price increases are already announced. But the share had moved only modestly ahead of the market into the print, and the company's own guidance flags ongoing input-cost pressure. So what: the pricing strategy is working, but the market still needs to see whether the announced price increases actually land and whether Q4's expected nil forestry fair value gain holds.
The Q4 update will show whether the announced paper price increases actually offset the higher energy and wood costs Mondi now expects to persist.
Evidence from the filing
Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA improved sequentially to €196 million from €167 million in Q2, although the comparison includes a nil fair value gain versus a €43 million fair value loss.
“Underlying EBITDA in the quarter was '196 million, including nil forestry fair value gain (Q2 2026: '167 million, including a '43 million forestry fair value loss).”
Further paper-grade price increases were announced, with benefits expected towards the end of 2026 and into 2027.
“In response to these recent increases in energy-related costs and supported by good order books, further price increases for a number of paper grades were announced during the quarter, with the benefit expected towards the end of this year and into 2027.”
Good order books supported positive price momentum, with higher average selling prices offsetting input-cost inflation during Q3 2026.
“Good order books supported positive price momentum in the quarter, with higher average selling prices offsetting input cost inflation.”
Higher packaging-paper prices are expected to support Q4 2026 performance despite ongoing input-cost pressures.
“As we enter the fourth quarter, higher packaging paper prices are expected to support performance, notwithstanding ongoing input cost pressures.”
Kraft Paper and Paper Bags delivered positive pricing momentum that offset higher input costs in Q3 2026.
“In Flexible Packaging, Kraft Paper and Paper Bags delivered positive pricing momentum offsetting higher input costs.”
Input costs were higher than expected as energy costs increased through the quarter and wood costs rose in Central and Eastern Europe.
“Input costs were higher than expected as energy-related costs continued to increase through the quarter, in addition to the anticipated increase in wood costs in Central and Eastern Europe.”
Competitive pressure and lags in passing on paper price increases continued to pressure Corrugated Solutions margins.
“Corrugated Packaging saw positive pricing momentum in Containerboard offsetting higher input costs, while competitive pressure and the lag in passing on paper price increases continued to affect Corrugated Solutions margins.”
Uncoated Fine Paper experienced seasonally weaker demand alongside higher input costs.
“Uncoated Fine Paper experienced seasonally weaker demand and higher input costs.”
Underlying EBITDA excluding forestry fair value was lower sequentially, primarily reflecting planned maintenance shuts.
“Excluding forestry fair value, underlying EBITDA was lower sequentially, primarily reflecting the impact of planned maintenance shuts.”
Mondi expects another nil forestry fair value gain in Q4 if current prices, particularly South African diesel prices, prevail.
“However, if current prices prevail, and in particular, South African diesel prices, we expect nil forestry fair value gain in the fourth quarter.”
More on Mondi plc
Related filings
More from MNP
- MONDI PLC - Notification of Major Interests in Shares
- MONDI PLC - Mondi Group Results of the Dividend Reinvestment Plan 2026 Interim Dividend
- MONDI PLC - Transactions in Mondi plc ordinary shares of 0.22 each
- MONDI PLC - 2026 Annual General Meeting voting update statement
- MONDI PLC - TRANSACTIONS IN MONDI plc ORDINARY SHARES OF 0.22 EACH
Other Trading Update
- SRESIRIUS REAL ESTATE LIMITED - Trading Update for the half year ended 30 September 2026
- EMIEMIRA PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Pre-close operational update
- BTNBURSTONE GROUP LIMITED - Investor pre-close conference call and voluntary trading update for the six months ending 30 September 2026
- FTAFAIRVEST LIMITED - Fairvest pre-close and operational update
- OCEOCEANA GROUP LIMITED - VOLUNTARY TRADING UPDATE FOR THE 11 MONTHS ENDED 31 AUGUST 2026