SENS-AI
MTN Trading Statement Bullish

MTN GROUP LIMITED - Trading statement for the full year ended 31 December 2025

MTN Group Limited
Full analysis

What this filing means

MTN Group expects a massive earnings turnaround in FY25, with HEPS projected to rise over 1000% on the back of operational strength in West Africa and reduced impairments.

MTN expects its profits to jump significantly this year compared to last year, mainly because its big businesses in Nigeria and Ghana are doing well and it doesn't have as many one-off costs or bad debt write-downs. While the South African business is still facing tough competition, the overall group is moving from a loss-making position to a very profitable one.

Bull case

  • Projected HEPS growth of over 1000% (1,264 - 1,284 ZAc) compared to the prior year.
  • Significant turnaround in EPS from a loss of 531 ZAc to a profit of up to 1,168 ZAc.
  • Strong operational momentum in Nigeria and Ghana markets with improved service revenue and profitability.
  • Material reduction in impairment losses (157 cents vs 578 cents) and non-operational drags.

Bear case

  • MTN South Africa continues to struggle with intense competitive pressure in its core prepaid segment.
  • High trailing P/E of 50.5x and proximity to 52-week high suggests the recovery may be largely priced in.
  • Reporting complexity introduced by the MTN Ghana restatement may cloud the true comparability of FY24 figures.
  • Remaining impairment losses and non-operational items (-85 cents) still impact the quality of earnings.
View original SENS announcement

AI-generated summary by SENS-AI, based on the original JSE SENS filing.

SENS-AI conclusion

MTN's FY25 trading statement confirms a powerful earnings recovery, with HEPS set to exceed 1,264 ZAc, largely driven by robust performances from its Nigerian and Ghanaian subsidiaries and a sharp decline in one-off impairments. While the headline growth numbers are visually staggering due to a low base, the market has anticipated this recovery, as evidenced by the stock trading just 2% off its 52-week high and a 15% gain over the last month. Signal-to-Price Note: The price is up 1.79% on high volume (186% of average), suggesting that while much was priced in, the specific magnitude of the HEPS uplift still provided a fresh catalyst. Investor Takeaway: At a forward P/E of 12x, the stock offers a reasonable valuation for a massive turnaround story, though the South African prepaid segment remains a key monitoring point for long-term margin stability.

The earnings upgrade is credible and supported by subsidiary prints. Maintain or add on small pullbacks as the market digests the forward valuation.

Decision framework

Current stance: Lean Bull

Key drivers

  • Projected HEPS growth of over 1000% (1,264 - 1,284 ZAc) compared to the prior year.
  • Significant turnaround in EPS from a loss of 531 ZAc to a profit of up to 1,168 ZAc.
  • Strong operational momentum in Nigeria and Ghana markets with improved service revenue and profitability.

Key risks

  • MTN South Africa continues to struggle with intense competitive pressure in its core prepaid segment.
  • High trailing P/E of 50.5x and proximity to 52-week high suggests the recovery may be largely priced in.
  • Reporting complexity introduced by the MTN Ghana restatement may cloud the true comparability of FY24 figures.

What would change the view

  • Forward guidance is cut or withdrawn in the next update.
  • Cash-flow conversion deteriorates relative to reported earnings.
  • Positive thesis fails to hold through the next reporting window.

Evidence from the filing

  • MTN anticipates an extraordinary increase in Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS), with an expected range of 1,264 - 1,284 ZAc for FY 25, representing an increase of over 1000% compared to FY 24.

    “HEPS 98 1 264 - 1 284 >1000% 1 166 - 1 186”

  • The Group forecasts a significant turnaround in Earnings Per Share (EPS), moving from a loss of -531 ZAc in FY 24 to a positive range of 1,062 - 1,168 ZAc in FY 25, marking an increase of over 300%.

    “EPS -531 1 062 - 1 168 >300% 1 593 - 1 699”

  • The strong FY 25 performance is explicitly attributed to "pleasing operational progress and a supportive macroeconomic environment in key markets," highlighted by "robust results" from MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana.

    “The Group anticipates reporting a strong performance for FY 25 driven by pleasing operational progress and a supportive macroeconomic environment in key markets. The improved momentum across several of our markets underpinned strong growth in service revenue and profitability. In our larger operations, MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana delivered robust results in their FY 25 earnings releases on 26 February 2026 and 27 February 2026, respectively, highlighting improved profitability on better revenue growth.”

  • Ongoing Impairment and Non-Operational Deductions: The Group continues to report significant impairment losses (approximately 157 cents) impacting FY25 earnings.

    “The difference between FY 25 EPS and FY 25 HEPS is largely attributable to impairment losses that relate to investments, goodwill, property, plant and equipment totalling approximately 157 cents (FY 24: 578 cents).”

  • Persistent Operational Headwinds in Key Market: MTN South Africa continues to contend with increased competitive pressures in its prepaid business.

    “MTN South Africa continued to navigate increased competitive pressures in its prepaid business.”

  • Uncertainty from Financial Restatement: The announcement explicitly states that the Ghana restatement impact may not fairly present the Group's financial position for FY 24.

    “This impact is provided for illustrative purposes only and because of its nature, may not fairly present the Group's financial position, changes in equity or results of operations for FY 24.”
Category
Trading Statement
Published
Mar 2, 2026

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