SAP Results Bearish
SAPPI LIMITED - Results for the third quarter ended June 2026
Sappi Limited
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What this filing means
Sappi posted a Q3 net loss of US$181M and a nine-month loss of US$631M — a swing of roughly US$648M from the prior year's nine-month profit of US$17M. Adjusted EBITDA fell 34% in the quarter and 50% over nine months, with net debt at US$1,997M and covenant leverage at 6.9x. The share had run up strongly into the print (CAR-20 of +28.6%), so the losses are not a fresh shock, but the scale of the nine-month earnings collapse is difficult to frame as priced-in — the Bears have the directional case…
Bull case
- Management guides Q4 FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA materially above Q3, supported by DWP price lag benefit, Somerset Mill PM2 ramp-up, recent NA paperboard price increases, and lower maintenance costs.
- Q3 capex of US$62M was substantially below the prior year and FY2026 guidance was trimmed to ~US$240M from US$250M, supporting cash preservation.
Bear case
- Nine-month loss of US$631M vs prior-year profit of US$17M, with Q3 loss widening to US$181M from US$33M, signals severe earnings deterioration.
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