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SASOL LIMITED - Business Performance Metrics For The Year Ended 30 June 2026

Sasol Limited
Full analysis

What this filing means

A result the share needed, with real operational delivery. Sasol's business performance metrics show Secunda's highest annual production in five years and IC Adjusted EBITDA expected to exceed the US$375-450m guidance range — genuine beats, not just execution. The share had run up modestly ahead of the print (+5.5% CAR-20), so the move is partly confirmation, but the underlying beats are real. The catch is that these are preliminary, unreviewed estimates with full audited results deferred to 1 September 2026, leaving cash flow quality and debt untouched by this release.

Sasol ran its South African and international chemical plants well enough to beat what the market was expecting — Secunda hit a five-year production record and the international chemicals division made more profit than its guidance range implied. That is genuinely positive news, and because the share had not fully recovered from earlier weakness, it matters. The important caveat is that these are early numbers management put out in July, not audited accounts — the full financial picture, including actual cash flow and debt levels, does not arrive until September.

Bull case

  • Secunda Operations posted its highest annual output in five years, exceeding market guidance on destoning gains and improved gas availability.
  • IC Adjusted EBITDA is set to beat the US$375-450m guidance range, reflecting stronger US pricing and resilient Eurasia cost pass-through.
  • FY26 metrics across the group are tracking in line with or above guidance, signalling broad-based operational delivery.
  • Augusta paraffin unit restart, targeted for H1 FY27, taps a tight global n-paraffin/LAB market and demonstrates commercial agility.
  • Operational renewable capacity surpassed 500 MW after a 330 MW quarterly addition, advancing the energy transition and SO competitiveness.

Bear case

  • No audited FY26 financial results yet — all production and EBITDA 'beats' are unreviewed management estimates with results deferred to 1 September 2026.
  • ORYX GTL remains offline with restart contingent on stable Middle East regional conditions, leaving earnings recovery exposed to ongoing geopolitical volatility.
  • FY27 ZAR/USD hedging programme still incomplete at release, leaving a meaningful slice of rand-cost earnings unhedged against currency moves.
  • Net working capital exceeded guidance on ME-related fuels inventory build, signalling a near-term cash absorption headwind into Q1 FY27.
  • Wind-down of the Zaffra JV with Topsoe indicates a failed capital allocation outcome, raising questions over the rigour of prior specialty chemicals bets.
View original SENS announcement

AI-generated summary by SENS-AI, based on the original JSE SENS filing.

SENS-AI conclusion

A real operational beat against a market that had been cautious on Sasol's recovery story. Secunda's five-year production high and IC EBITDA above its guidance range are genuine data points — not administrative confirmations — and they land constructively given the share's uneven recovery off its lows. The +5.5% CAR-20 run-up means the price had started to price in an improving backdrop, which is a modest discount to the upside, but the magnitude of the beats is sufficient to move the needle for a name that has not fully re-rated. The preliminary nature of the figures is a real confidence discount: no audited income statement, cash-flow statement, or balance sheet has been presented. So what: the operational execution is real, but the market still needs the audited FY26 accounts to confirm the earnings are cash-backed and the leverage position is manageable, particularly given the working capital build at year-end. Missing evidence: No financial results figures provided — revenue, EBITDA, HEPS, EPS, cash flow all absent; No prior trading statement range for FY26 full year to benchmark against; No dividend declaration or guidance disclosed; No debt, leverage, or liquidity metrics disclosed; No specific FY27 production or financial guidance provided beyond hedging status

The audited FY26 financial results on 1 September 2026 are where the market will test whether the operational beats translate to the bottom line and whether net debt improved despite the working capital build.

Evidence from the filing

  • Secunda Operations posted its highest annual output in five years, exceeding market guidance on destoning gains and improved gas availability.

    “Secunda Operations (SO) achieved its highest annual production in the past five years, exceeding market guidance”

  • IC Adjusted EBITDA is set to beat the US$375-450m guidance range, reflecting stronger US pricing and resilient Eurasia cost pass-through.

    “IC Adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed our market guidance range of US$375 - 450 million”

  • FY26 metrics across the group are tracking in line with or above guidance, signalling broad-based operational delivery.

    “FY26 financial metrics are expected to be in line with or exceed guidance, with the exception of net working capital which was higher at year-end due to higher pricing resulting from the ME conflict and fuels inventory build”

  • Augusta paraffin unit restart, targeted for H1 FY27, taps a tight global n-paraffin/LAB market and demonstrates commercial agility.

    “Sasol has initiated the restart of its paraffin production unit in Augusta, Italy, which was previously mothballed. The restart, expected in H1 FY27”

  • Operational renewable capacity surpassed 500 MW after a 330 MW quarterly addition, advancing the energy transition and SO competitiveness.

    “330 MW brought online during the quarter. This increased operational renewable energy capacity to more than 500 MW of the over 1,2GW secured”

  • No audited FY26 financial results yet — all production and EBITDA 'beats' are unreviewed management estimates with results deferred to 1 September 2026.

    “Forward looking statements, financial information and targets included in this statement have not been reviewed or reported on by Sasol's auditors”

  • ORYX GTL remains offline with restart contingent on stable Middle East regional conditions, leaving earnings recovery exposed to ongoing geopolitical volatility.

    “ORYX GTL remained offline following earlier gas supply disruptions, with restart activities dependent on stable operating conditions in the region”

  • FY27 ZAR/USD hedging programme still incomplete at release, leaving a meaningful slice of rand-cost earnings unhedged against currency moves.

    “The FY27 oil hedging programme is complete while the FY27 ZAR/USD hedging programme is still underway”

  • Wind-down of the Zaffra JV with Topsoe indicates a failed capital allocation outcome, raising questions over the rigour of prior specialty chemicals bets.

    “Sasol and Topsoe have agreed to prepare for the operational wind-down of the Zaffra joint venture”
Category
Results
Event posture
Constructive
Published
Jul 21, 2026

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