SOL Trading Statement Neutral
SASOL LIMITED - Trading Statement for the Year Ended 30 June 2026
Sasol Limited
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What this filing means
Sasol guides FY2026 adjusted EBITDA 12%–20% higher to R58–R62bn and HEPS 2%–14% up to R36–R40, with EPS soaring 65%–84% off a depressed base. Operating drivers look genuine — sales volumes up 4%, Brent crude +7%, refining margins more than doubled. But the share ran up 8.9% in the 20 days before the print, so the operating step-up is largely in the price. The flashy EPS recovery is mostly smaller impairments (R16.8bn vs R20.7bn), not core earnings acceleration.
Bull case
- Adjusted EBITDA is guided up 12-20% to R58-R62bn from R51.8bn, marking a clear operating earnings step-up.
- HEPS is guided at R36-R40 versus prior-year R35.13, a 2-14% increase confirming positive underlying earnings momentum.
Bear case
- HEPS growth of just 2-14% reveals the operating earnings engine barely accelerated, with the flashy 65-84% EPS recovery driven mostly by shrinking impairments rather than core performance.
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